Liberal Democracy

Liberal Democracy
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Monday, June 25, 2012

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi: If Individual Mandate Struck Down, The Rest of Th ACA Won't Work

Here's my best case as well as most likely scenario of the Supreme Court Ruling of the Affordable Care Act on Thursday. The US Supreme Court strikes down the Individual Mandate on a 5-4 decision, with Justice Kennedy voting with the majority but the rest of the ACA, except for maybe the Federal Mandate on Medicaid, survives. 6-3 with both Justice Kennedy and Chief Justice Roberts voting in favor of it, Chief Justice Roberts from sources I've heard, doesn't like the Individual Mandate. And perhaps not the entire bill and does see the IM as Unconstitutional but doesn't see the whole bill as Unconstitutional and doesn't want the biggest decision of his Supreme Courtship if you will, to be decided on party lines. With one vote deciding it either way, if you remember the Supreme Court arguments back in April, Chief Justice Roberts was the most open minded of the Republicans, not only on the Individual Mandate but the entire ACA. And I believe may be willing to uphold a bill, except of the Individual Mandate, even though he may not like the rest of the bill. But that he sees it as Constitutional and therefore shouldn't be thrown out by the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court is not a Legislature, they decide whether bills stay in or not, based on the Constitutionality, not whether its good policy or not.

So assuming I'm right for a minute for the sake of this blog, if nothing else. If only the Individual Mandate gets tossed, which is big enough and a big enough problem to deal with but the rest of the bill stays in. Which is clearly not a safe bet but what would that mean, well people who can't currently afford Health Insurance for themselves, would still get help getting that. Through the Tax Credit in the ACA, employers who want to provide their employees Health Insurance but can't afford to, would still get help in doing so, to make their place of employment more attractable. The Patients Bill of Rights thats in the ACA, would still be in there, meaning that insurers would still no longer be able to dump people, because they actually need their Health Insurance. Instead of just paying into it, Lifetime Caps would still be eliminated, which is in the Patient Bill of Rights, as well as denying people Health Insurance, because they have a Pre Existing Condition.

If the rest of the Affordable Care Act remains intact and the Supreme Court doesn't toss it out the whole bill. Thats what Republicans will attempt to repeal in the next Congress, if there is a Republican Congress, all of these previsions that are actually popular by themselves, just not all together. And if this is the case Congress will have work to on the ACA if most of the law is ruled Constitutional, because it won't work very well without the Individual Mandate. Bringing in all of the healthy and unhealthy people in the same Healthcare System, to bring down Healthcare Costs, instead of just dumping a lot of unhealthy people into the system. People who can't afford their Healthcare Costs.